Two worthy winners – but who will come out on top?
The Women's Super League is coming to a close. Both Chelsea and Manchester City could still win it and the title race is a tough one to call.
Worthiness is an entirely subjective concept. Perhaps you could perform a rigorous statistical analysis and produce a numerical representation; more likely, it is little more than a vibe.
Could you, for example, find a way to depict one of Chelsea or Manchester City as more worthy of winning the Women’s Super League? It would be tough to say with any real certainty that one is more deserving than the other.
What this season has shown is that both would make fitting champions. Each have had their own tale, a different path to finding themselves on the precipice of success, but they’ve ended up in a near-identical situation.
It is Chelsea who lead going into the final day – a two-goal goal difference cushion giving them the advantage. It will likely be Chelsea who lift yet another title. Some of that could be attributed to resilience, some the strength of their squad, a large part could also be put down to luck.
Arguing that luck has played a hand does not diminish their achievements. Luck took the form of Manchester City slipping up to Arsenal, making Emma Hayes’ disillusioned sentiments after losing to Liverpool obsolete.
But luck isn’t the deciding factor. What Chelsea have shown is their ability to take advantage of receiving the rub of the green, their immense quality in being able to bounce back from moments of heartbreak. Where mere weeks ago the title appeared to be unlikely, now it is theirs to lose.
Their game against Manchester United is a tough one to call; it all depends on which sort of Chelsea performance we see at Old Trafford.
This team sometimes has a bit of a peculiarity about it. If things go right then they score and are rampant, they grind out results. If things go wrong then they quickly go stale – think back to the draw with Hacken in the Champions League if your memory needs jogging.
Even if going wrong doesn’t result in a loss, Chelsea have sometimes had the habit of being limited in their scoring abilities. That happened in midweek against Tottenham and to give themselves the best chance of coming out on top they’ll need to enjoy the other side of their dichotomy. They could do with winning and playing their free-scoring best.
What makes the United test even more potentially tricky is that this is a team who have just won the FA Cup final to lift their first piece of silverware, a team wanting to delight a bumper crowd, and a team who managed to crack Chelsea in the FA Cup semi-finals.
United need, too, to get back to happier memories at Old Trafford. No supporter who ventured to the club’s’ main stadium to watch their derby day drubbing by City earlier this season will leave pleased with anything resembling a repeat.
Let’s think back to their cup clash to get a sense of what might happen. If United are buoyed by their fans – and especially if they take the upper hand early on – they seem to thrive. If Chelsea struggle, it can at times become frantic; they were lucky to not concede in the second half against Tottenham.
But, at risk of making a premature prediction, there feels an overwhelming sense that Chelsea will at least get the necessary win. Their emotional state has risen from the gutter to the edge of jubilation and that momentum will act as an extra boost.
Of course, there’s also the likelihood that this could result in a fairytale ending for Hayes. A title race going down to the final day, a chance to win a final trophy with her club, Chelsea legends departing at the end of the season and a potential for goal-difference drama? That sounds like a recipe for one of football’s great moments.
Chelsea need to get their job over the line and hope Manchester City don’t find a way to clamber above them to the top regardless. Their title rivals play Aston Villa on Saturday and how that one might play out is also difficult to foresee
City’s big issue is that they need goals more than ever. How infuriating, therefore, that they are without top scorer Khadija Shaw owing to her recent injury.
They need goals and they need lots of them. They’ve been able to score without her, but they’ve not quite been able to record the sort of rout they’re going to need.
How Gareth Taylor sets up his side against Vila will be key. They will need the wing pairing of Lauren Hemp and Chloe Kelly, they’re probably going to need Mary Fowler through the middle too. She may not be as potent as other strikers, but she’s as good as they’ve got.
Aston Villa are a team who cause problems on the transition, but City could succeed if they overload them going the other way. Tormenting their wing-backs and allowing Jess Park to roam free in the middle and drag defenders out of position could be crucial in getting the space they will need. After that, they just need to be able to convert.
Villa are not the same threat that they were last season but they are a potential threat nevertheless. The knowledge that they need goals could cause sloppiness for City and against a side so adept at punishing teams for overturning possession, they’ll need to be able to recover.
Therefore, while goals are of course important, it might be the case that Yui Hasegawa’s actions are what will actually make the difference. Conceding even once will make an already tough task improbable, but if she is at her best form and manages to sweep up in the middle it will afford them room to play with freedom going forward, create the chances they need, and avoid the pain of conceding.
It is peculiar to think, given the fact they are so close to winning the title, that there has often been a feeling that Gareth Taylor’s job has been on the line in recent years. To his credit he’s built a squad which has been able to cope with some big departures and they’re in as good a place as ever to accomplish a first title since 2016.
Their bench might not be as stacked in quality as Chelsea’s, but their starting line-ups have been consistent and consistently good. Consistency has been City’s key – or at least it was before they messed up against Arsenal. If they ensure that was just a blip and get back to their best, then City at their best may very well make the most of a fixture which seems easier than Chelsea’s on paper.
The title is hard to forecast, but what is easier to say is that the season comes to a close amid an air of positivity. Every season seems heralded by talk of a game growing, but this season it is evident the effects of previous years have compounded. Few teams are being trounced every week, even Bristol City haven’t been anywhere near as outclassed as other ‘weaker’ sides in recent memory.
With Hayes leaving and Chelsea’s total dominance finally coming under another challenge, we appear to be on the cusp of a new era. That next season’s WSL will be comprised entirely of sides backed by a Premier League club shows how things are taking on a new form. Perhaps we will see more competition in the coming years?
The time to talk about the future will come. NewCo are taking over and will preside over a new era.
Before that happens, the final chapter of this still needs to be written.